Italy vs Estonia Prediction 5 September 2025

In the fifth round of the 2026 World Cup qualification, Italy will take on Estonia.
For the Azzurri, this stage of the campaign is already decisive. A stunning 0–3 defeat to Norway in the opening match dealt a serious blow to their hopes of finishing first in the group and qualifying directly for the tournament. Italy managed to recover somewhat with a routine 2–0 win over Malta, which temporarily lifted them into third place. However, results in the Nations League earlier this year, where they were eliminated by Germany after a 3–3 draw and a 1–2 defeat, have shown that the team still has weaknesses to address.

Estonia, meanwhile, approaches this meeting with much lower expectations. The Baltic side has struggled for consistency and has been unable to compete with stronger opponents in recent years. Following relegation to Division D of the Nations League in 2024, Estonia recorded a narrow 3–2 victory over Moldova but then lost both fixtures against Israel (1–2, 1–3) and also fell to Norway (0–1). Their lack of experience at the top level and limited squad depth make them heavy underdogs in this clash.

On paper, the difference in quality between the two teams is overwhelming. Italy not only has the advantage of playing at home but also the urgent motivation to get their qualification campaign back on course. Given their superior talent and the pressure to deliver, the hosts are widely expected to secure a comfortable win and restore confidence before more decisive matches ahead.

Italy to win with -2.5 goals in the match 1.80