Macau casino revenue forecast raised as recovery momentum strengthens

Several major investment banks, citing resilient visitor spending and stronger gaming performance in the second half of the year, now anticipate firmer growth in 2025 and 2026, according to reporting from Macao Daily.

The upgrades follow a period of improving fundamentals for the world’s largest gaming hub. Expanded tourism offerings, more aggressive marketing efforts, and a broader customer mix have helped sustain revenue gains across both mass-market and premium gaming segments. Analysts say this stabilising trend has provided greater visibility for operator earnings, prompting a series of modest but meaningful upward adjustments.

In its latest outlook, UBS increased its 2025 forecast for Macau’s full-year casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), projecting 9% year-on-year growth, a slight uplift of under 1 percentage point from its prior estimate. Despite the stronger recovery trajectory, GGR for 2025 would still remain around 16% below 2019 levels, underscoring the gap that persists compared with pre-pandemic highs.

Looking further ahead, UBS expects GGR to expand by 6% in 2026, leaving the market 11% short of 2019 performance, and has raised its 2027 projection by 2 percentage points, now forecasting 4% growth for that year. Even with the upgrade, 2027 revenue is still projected to be 7% below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a gradual, multi-year recovery curve.

UBS noted that operators with stronger high-end product offerings and premium-focused service strategies are likely to outperform peers as reinvestment stabilises and high-value clientele remain active. The bank now anticipates Macau’s mass-market revenue to rise 7% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 4% in 2027, reflecting steady demand in the segment that has become the core driver of the market. VIP revenue expectations were adjusted only slightly: the 2025 forecast was trimmed by 1 percentage point to an expected 22% annual increase, while projections for 6% growth in 2026 were maintained, and the 2027 forecast was nudged up by 1 point to a 4% rise.

The Hong Kong-listed gaming sector showed a mixed reaction to the updated outlook. Galaxy Entertainment was the only major operator to finish higher, lifting 0.7% to HK$40.06. Sands China fell 1.6% to HK$21.06, MGM China slipped 0.06% to HK$16.74, Wynn Macau lost 1.1% to HK$6.34, Melco International declined 1.44% to HK$4.79, and SJM Holdings dropped 1.9% to HK$2.57.

Analysts and local officials remain optimistic that a continued diversification of tourism products and sustained premium-segment activity will support Macau’s recovery in the coming years.