Italy vs France Prediction 12 November 2026

Both teams have shown encouraging form in the competition, but France arrive with a stronger overall record and greater attacking depth. The visitors will be looking to secure another important result against a familiar opponent.

France are priced at 1.90 to win despite facing a difficult away fixture. They have won three of their last five matches and have conceded just two goals across their four most recent Nations League games. Italy have also collected three victories in their last five outings, but their 0-2 home defeat to Belgium exposed some defensive weaknesses. France's greater attacking quality and recent consistency make them a reasonable choice to take all three points.

Italy have produced some positive performances recently, particularly against Turkey. They defeated their opponents 3-1 at home on 5 October and had previously secured an impressive 4-1 away victory. Sandwiched between those results was a 1-1 draw against France, showing that Italy can compete with the strongest teams in the group. However, their 0-2 defeat to Belgium highlighted problems when facing high-quality attacks. Italy also beat Greece 1-0 in a friendly, meaning they have won three of their last five matches while scoring nine goals and conceding four.

France have been equally impressive, with their attacking performances providing plenty of encouragement. They defeated Belgium 4-1 on 5 October, following narrow 1-0 victories away to Belgium and Turkey. Their only other Nations League draw in this sequence was a 1-1 result against Italy. France also lost 6-4 to England at the World Cup, an unusually high-scoring encounter that exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, their recent Nations League record is strong, with three wins and one draw in four matches, alongside seven goals scored and just two conceded.

The main challenge for France will be breaking down an Italian side that has shown good defensive organisation in recent meetings. Italy will look to use home advantage and exploit opportunities on the counterattack, but the visitors have demonstrated greater consistency in controlling difficult matches. France's ability to create chances through their attacking quality could prove decisive, especially if they score first and force Italy to take more risks.

Italy should make this a competitive contest, but France have looked more convincing in the Nations League and possess enough quality to secure an away victory. The visitors' defensive record and recent results against strong opponents strengthen the case for backing them at 1.90.

France to win at 1.90